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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Dec 05 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Dec 2021	085	007
06 Dec 2021	082	005
07 Dec 2021	082	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was at moderate levels over the last 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2898, continued to produce flares from beyond the limb including an M1.4 flare, peaking at 06:58 UT. NOAA AR 2902 was stable. NOAAA ARs 2901 and 2903, which had previously decayed into plage regions, have exhibited some new spot development, but remain simple. A new AR (NOAA AR 2904) has emerged in the south-east quadrant (beta magnetic field configuration). Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance for a C-class flare.

Multiple Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed, associated with the flaring activity beyond the west limb from NOAA AR2898. None of these are expected to impact Earth. A filament stretching across the central meridian in the southern hemisphere has shown signs of erupting. No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold in the past 24 hours but is expected to remain just below or at this threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to be at between nominal and moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed (DSCOVR) remained elevated with values ranging between 400 and 520 km/s. The total magnetic field fluctuated between 1 and 7 nT. Bz ranged between -4 and +4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated on Dec 05, with further enhancements possible due to the influence of the HSS from the positive polarity Coronal Hole (CH) that began to traverse the central meridian on Dec 02. The solar wind is then expected to gradually return to a slow solar wind regime from Dec 06.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and K-BEL recorded values of 1-3 and 1-2, respectively). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible on Dec 05, due to the expected HSS influence.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 031, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Dec 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	088
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	019 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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