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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Feb 12 1243 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Feb 2022	112	012
13 Feb 2022	112	024
14 Feb 2022	112	017

Bulletin

An M1.4 flare occurred this morning peaking at 8:44UT from Catania group 31, the region that emerged yesterday just East of Catania group 22 (NOAA region 2939). Further C flares were observed from Catania group 22 (NOAA region 2939) itself, as well as from Catania group 21 (NOAA region 2940), which are both now turning around the West limb. New flux emergence and spot formation was observed in the intermediate and trailing area of Catania group 26 (NOAA region 2941), but the region remained quiet. Catania groups 29 and 32, remain small bipolar groups with limited flaring potential, Catania group 33 (NOAA region 2946) is a slightly larger bipolar group but also appears stable and quiet. Flaring at C level is expected, with still a chance for an isolated M flare remaining.

The M flare is associated with a CME, visible in STEREO A COR2 coronagraph data from 9:23UT onward. We are awaiting coronagraph data from Earth perspective for a proper analysis. At 12:19UT yesterday February 11, a filament erupted from S22E22. Coronagraph data from Earth perspective are currently lacking for that time, but corresponding STEREO A COR2 coronagraph data do not show any related Earth-directed CME. No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu alert threshold at the diurnal maximum, and this is expected to occur again today. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during the next period. An increasing trend is expected given the ongoing high speed stream Solar wind conditions.

Solar wind measurements showed the end of the CME passage which somewhat unexpectedly, was immediately followed by high speed stream Solar wind conditions (which were expected only by tomorrow). At the start of the period we still saw the passage of the CME core with magnetic field magnitude firmly building up to around 21nT but with a predominantly Northward orientation. Between roughly 18UT and 22UT the Solar wind speed then increased to be in the 470-500km/s range and magnetic field following a decreasing trend towards 10nT, but with a more persistent Southward orientation. From after 22UT the magnetic field was around 4nT but with a Solar wind speed of around 550km/s since then. The magnetic field phi angle now indicates connection to a negative polarity sector (magnetic field towards the Sun). Enhanced Solar wind conditions are expected to persist over the next 24-48 hours before starting a gradual decline.

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (Kp NOAA and local K Belgium reaching 5) again during the period of enhanced Solar wind speed and strong Southward oriented interplanetary magnetic field. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active over the next days as a result of the ongoing high speed stream conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 055, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Feb 2022

Wolf number Catania	095
10cm solar flux	113
AK Chambon La Forêt	036
AK Wingst	022
Estimated Ap	024
Estimated international sunspot number	080 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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