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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Feb 14 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Feb 2022	103	011
15 Feb 2022	100	010
16 Feb 2022	099	004

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels. Catania group 26 (NOAA region 2941) was most active, producing a C7.1 flare peaking at 21:42UT Feb 13. The region is classified as beta-gamma. Catania group 32 (NOAA region 2945) has decayed into a plage region. Catania group 33 (NOAA region 2946) remained stable. Two new small regions emerged over the period (located at N15W45 and S28E65) but are as yet not numbered. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for an M-class flare, especially from Catania group 26 (NOAA region 2941).

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The threshold is expected to be exceeded again today. The 24 hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels during the next 24 hours.

Solar wind conditions remained elevated as the Earth continued to be under the influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed decreased slightly from around 510 km/s to fluctuating around 490 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated around 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards from the Sun). Elevated Solar wind conditions are expected to persist for the next 24 hours while continuing to wane.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 2-3 and local K Belgium 1-3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with possible isolated active periods over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 066, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Feb 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	105
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	020
Estimated international sunspot number	047 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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