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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Feb 24 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Feb 2022	096	007
25 Feb 2022	096	008
26 Feb 2022	098	015

Bulletin

NOAA region 2955 produced a B9.3 flare peaking at 02:54 UT on February 24. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 50%, mainly from regions 2954 and 2955.

A filament eruption took place around 05:00 UT on February 24 (20S 15E – 40S 30E), as observed in the AIA 19.3 and 30.4 nm channels. Another filament eruption took place around 08:00 UT (20S 30W – 20S 45W). No Earth- directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux slightly exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours, and may exceed that threshold again in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and may reach moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 420 and 550 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values near 490 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) varied between about 0 and 7 nT, and its orientation fluctuated between away from the Sun and towards the Sun. There were no extended time intervals with Bz below -5 nT. A gradual decrease of solar wind conditions is expected on February 24 and 25. On February 26, enhanced solar wind levels are possible due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL = 2; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K-BEL < 4) are expected on February 24 and 25, with a chance for active intervals (K-BEL = 4). Active intervals (K-BEL = 4) are possible on February 26, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 5), due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 037, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Feb 2022

Wolf number Catania	038
10cm solar flux	096
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	037 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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