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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Feb 26 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Feb 2022	098	010
27 Feb 2022	100	015
28 Feb 2022	101	007

Bulletin

A region rotating into view from behind the southeast limb produced a C5.1 flare peaking at 21:40 UT on February 25. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 70%, mainly from this region, with a 20% chance for an M flare.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours, and is expected to exceed that threshold again in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 445 to 370 km/s in the past 24 hours. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) varied between about 0 and 6 nT, and its orientation was predominantly away from the Sun. Bz was never below -5 nT. In the next days, enhanced solar wind levels are possible due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active intervals are possible on February 26, 27 and 28, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 5), due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 025, based on 25 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Feb 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	096
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	022 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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