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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Mar 04 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Mar 2022	114	009
05 Mar 2022	116	005
06 Mar 2022	118	003

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low but frequent during the last 24 hours with seven C-class flares detected. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2958 (Catania group 46) produced the brightest flare, a C3 at 3 Mar 21:55 UT. Nevertheless, an AR rotating into Earth's view, approximately at S20E70, has produced five C-class flares, all below the C2 level. A second AR coming into Earth's view, located at N25E86 produced a C1 flare during the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 2958 is expected to produce more C-class flares and there is a chance of an isolated M-class flare, in the next 24 hours. NOAA AR 2960 (Catania group 51) is also expected to produce C-class events during the coming 24 hours. The two yet unnamed AR are expected to produce C-class events in the next 24 hours, but as their magnetic configuration is highly uncertain, the chance of an M-class flare cannot be estimated.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions (as measured by the DSCOVR and ACE satellites) are affected by the arrival of a sector boundary crossing. The SW speed gradually increased from 340 to 500 km/s during the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Btot) was below 5 nT until 3 Mar 17:00 UT and has increased to 9 nT since. Its Bz component varied between -5 and 8 nT since the arrival of the sector boundary. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was positive (directed away from the Sun) up to 3 Mar 16:20 UT and has now become mostly negative. These enhanced SW conditions are expected to gradually return to a slow wind regime until the predicted High Speed Stream arrives.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp index 0-2) and locally quiet to moderate (K-BEL index 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 082, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Mar 2022

Wolf number Catania	100
10cm solar flux	111
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	082 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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