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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Mar 15 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Mar 2022	115	007
16 Mar 2022	117	007
17 Mar 2022	119	007

Bulletin

There are five active regions on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR 2965 has evolved into a beta-gamma magnetic field configuration and it has produced five C-class flares in the last 24 hours. The strongest was a C5.3 flare, peaking at 22:14 UT, on 14 March. The other active regions have simple magnetic field configuration (alpha or beta) and have not produced any significant flares. For the next 24 hours, more C-class flares are expected, and M-class flares are possible.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery in the past 24 hours. Two wide CMEs (angular width about 90 degrees) erupted on 14 March (at 17:36 UT and 19:12 UT observed by SOHO/LASCO C2), but they seem to be backsided and will not influence the Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was recorded well under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was normal and is expected to remain so in next 24 hours.

The Earth is no longer under the effect of the ICME from 10 March. The interplanetary magnetic field is around 7 nT (with negative polarity, towards the Sun), with positive Bz, the solar wind speed is at 420 km/s. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet (K_Bel = 1-3 and Kp = 1-2) . Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 068, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Mar 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	077 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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