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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Mar 28 1249 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Mar 2022	130	009
29 Mar 2022	133	034
30 Mar 2022	137	016

Bulletin

The solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with the highest flare recorded being a M4.0 class flare, peak time 11:29UT, from region NOAA 2975. The sunspot regions NOAA-AR 2977, 2975 and 2976 have complex magnetic configurations. Together with newly emerged NOAA 2978 are the ones to be monitored for flaring. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are possible with a chance of M-class flares and a slight possibility of X-class flares.

The M4.0-class flare was followed a type II burst (indicating a shock wave, near the peak of the flare), followed by a type IV burst, raising the possibility of an associated earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) with a velocity of 1259 km/s. The CME detected by CACTus on March 28th 00:00UT could have been originated from a still non visible part of active region 2978.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. For the next 24 hours it could be elevated as a response to the combination of events above, without excluding a proton event. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence dropped to nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected remained at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are still under the impact of expected high speed streams. The total magnetic field values dropped from 12 to 3 nT. Its southward component Bz had values between -9 and +8 nT. The solar wind speed had values from 480 to 570 km/s.. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Over the next 24 hours we expect the solar wind conditions to remain enhanced, as possible influences from the CME on March 25 at 05:25 UTC can be expected. In addition, the type II radio emission is indicating an Earth-directed of velocity 1259 km/s. This would indicate a preliminary time of arrival March 29th.

Over the past 24 hours, we had quiet to unsettled conditions, with an active period March 27th 15:00 to March 28th 06:00UT. Over the next 24 hours, active regions can be expected, with a chance of minor storm conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 135, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Mar 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	082 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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