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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Apr 29 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Apr 2022	140	013
30 Apr 2022	140	016
01 May 2022	140	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was more active in the past 24 hours with an M-class flare and several C-class flares. The M1.2-class flare happened in the decaying Catania sunspot group 85 (NOAA active region 2996) at 07:42 UTC on April 29. The other regions (Catania sunspots 82, 84 and 92; NOAA active regions 2994, 2995, and 3001) were also active with several C-class flares. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are expected with still also a small chance for an M-class flare.

For now, no Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours. However, the M1.2-class flare from Catania sunspot group 85 (NOAA active region 2996) located at latitude 26 north and longitude 39 west may have been associated with a CME. Further information will be provided as SOHO/LASCO data comes in.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected remained at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters in Earth environment (as recorded by DSCOVR) remained somewhat slightly elevated with a solar wind speed ranging between 475 km/s and 555 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude fluctuated between 4.6 nT and 8.7 nT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly negative and reached -6.7 nT. The high-speed streams coming from the equatorial coronal hole (negative polarity) that reached the central meridian on April 26 is expected to reach Earth and enhance further the solar wind parameters later today on April 29 or earlier tomorrow on April 20.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle due to the slightly enhanced solar wind conditions (NOAA Kp and local K-Belgium indexes 2-3). The geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with possible isolated periods of unsettled condition before the arrival of the fast solar wind (originating from the equatorial coronal hole that reached the central meridian on April 26) later today or tomorrow morning, when active condition may occur.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 100, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Apr 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	///
Estimated international sunspot number	130 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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