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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 May 06 1313 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 May 2022	125	005
07 May 2022	130	012
08 May 2022	132	010

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. Two M flares, M2.2 and M2.7, were observed at the peak times of 13:16 and 14:10 UT. The M2.2 flare originated from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3004 and the M2.7 from NOAA AR 3006. NOAA AR 3004 remains the most complex region on the disk. The rest of the regions were relatively quiet and stable. The flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable and X-class flares possible.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so with a small chance of a proton event associated to with NOAA AR 3004. The greater than 2MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to exceed threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions reflected an ambient solar wind regime. The solar wind speed (as recorded by ACE) ranged between 320 to near 450 km/s. The total magnetic field magnitude fluctuated around 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to reflect a slow solar wind regime on May 06, with a weak enhancement possible on May 07 to May 08 due to a glancing blow from a CME associated with a dimming observed on May 03.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA KP 0-1 and Local K-Bel 0-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet on May 06. With unsettled to active conditions possible on May 07 to May 08, due to the possible glancing blow of a CME.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 079, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 05 May 2022

Wolf number Catania	094
10cm solar flux	120
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	074 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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