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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Aug 28 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Aug 2022	128	019
29 Aug 2022	122	029
30 Aug 2022	126	013

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours, with flare of largest X-ray output being a M1.4-class flare from NOAA AR 3088. The vast majority of the flaring activity was originated from said region, which developed further and is about to rotate off disk. A new region emerged on the visible solar disk on the NE quadrant. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are expected while M-class flares are possible.

A filament eruption can be seen NW of NOAA AR 3089 at 27 August 18:25 UTC. This event will be monitored. No new Earth-directed CMEs were recorded over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux decreased below the 10 pfu mark at 27 August 21:45 UTC. The proton flux is expected to continue decreasing over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters reflected waning ICME and High Speed Stream (HSS) influences over the past 24 hours. The solar wind magnetic field values decreased from 14 to 2 nT, while Bz had values between -10 and 12 nT. The solar wind speed reached 525 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly on the negative sector (towards the Sun). Over the next 24 hours, a glancing blow from the CME of 27 August 02:12 UTC can be expected, as well as the HSS from the negative polarity southern coronal hole.

Active conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 4). Over the next 24 hours, unsettled to active conditions can be expected, while a minor storm event is possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 090, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Aug 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	098 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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