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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Oct 04 1247 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Oct 2022	156	011
05 Oct 2022	157	011
06 Oct 2022	158	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at high levels. Catania sunspot group 48 (NOAA AR 3110, beta) and very magnetically complex sunspot NOAA AR 3112 (beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity) remained active and produced several M-class flares. The largest and latest one was a M1.7-class flare produced by NOAA AR 3110 at 21:22 UTC peak time on October 02. The other sunspots group on the disc facing Earth were not showing any flaring activity. Since the latest M1.7-class flare, the full disc flaring activity seems to have slightly decreased to C-class flaring levels of activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain high with possible M-class flares and also slight chance for an X-class flare.

No coronal mass ejection observed in the coronographic images has been identified to be Earth directed.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and it is expected to be below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The Earth continued to be under influence of a high-speed stream coming from coronal holes (positive polarity), with solar wind values between 440 km/s and 570 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was elevated around 10-16 nT. Then it slowly decreased the current values 5.5-8.8 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -13 nT and 12 nT. The magnetic field phi angle was mostly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). So far there was no indication of the possible glancing blow arrival of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the filament eruption that began to lift off around 11:59 UTC October 01. The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced due to the ongoing influence of the high-speed stream combined with possible glancing blow of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection.

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active (NOAA Kp 2-4, local K-Dourbes 2-4) with some periods for which storm conditions were observed (NOAA Kp 5, local K-Dourbes 5). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled conditions with possible periods of active conditions for the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 161, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	146
10cm solar flux	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	033
AK Wingst	027
Estimated Ap	030
Estimated international sunspot number	159 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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