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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Oct 16 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Oct 2022	115	007
17 Oct 2022	113	014
18 Oct 2022	111	007

Bulletin

There are four active regions on the visible disc, none of them created any significant flaring activity in the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 3112 (no longer visible) produced a C6.1 flare with peak at 14:32 UT on 15 October. There is a C-class flare ongoing at the moment of writing, currently at the C1 level, but the flux is still increasing. More C-class flaring can be expected for the next 24 hours.

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The Earth is still inside a fast solar wind stream from a negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed is at 580 km/s with an interplanetary magnetic field magnitude of 5 nT. We expect a return to slow solar wind conditions in the coming 24 hours, and a possible arrival of the CME from 13 October.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels locally (K_Dourbes up to 4) and globally (Kp up to 4). Unsettled to active conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours, with possible minor storm levels if the CME from 13 October arrives in about 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 060, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	021
Estimated international sunspot number	041 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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