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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Oct 18 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Oct 2022	121	003
19 Oct 2022	119	002
20 Oct 2022	117	005

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with a number of C-class flares observed over the past 24 hours. All the flaring activity was produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3124 (Catania group 64, magnetic configuration Beta) and the AR group at the North West solar limb. Although NOAA AR 3124 has started to decay, it is likely to produce more C-class flare activity over the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections were observed in the last 24 hours. A small equatorial coronal hole with positive polarity crossed the solar meridian yesterday. It is expected to arrive around 20 October.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased during the last 24 hours, however, it remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain at this level in the next 24 hours.

The Solar Wind (SW) parameters remained affected by the arrival of the High Speed Stream (HSS) on 15 Oct. The SW speed gradually dropped from 580 to 500 km/s over the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Bt) remained around 5 nT, while its Bz component ranged between -5 to 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed towards the Sun. The SW speed is expected to decrease in the next 24 hours, while the other parameters are expected to remain the same.

Geomagnetic conditions reached globally unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 1-3) and locally remained quiet (K Belgium 1-2) over the last 24 hours. In the next 24 hours the conditions are expected to be quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp and K-Belgium up to 2).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 051, based on 23 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	091
10cm solar flux	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	069 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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