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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Oct 29 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Oct 2022	134	022
30 Oct 2022	140	017
31 Oct 2022	145	009

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with four C1 flares detected over the last 24 hours. The newly numbered NOAA Active Region (AR) 3135 (magnetic type Beta) produced three of the C-class flares and is expected to remain at this level of activity for the next 24 hours. NOAA AR 3130 (Catania group 72, magnetic type Beta) emitted the forth C1 flare but it is loosing magnetic complexity and has only a small chance of producing more flares at C-class level in the next 24 hours. The rest of the AR are decaying and are unlikely to produce C-class flares.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections were observed in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

A small northern coronal hole of positive polarity started crossing the central meridian yesterday 16:00 UT. A weak high speed stream might become Geo-effective on 31 Oct as a result.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were affected by the arrival of the expected High Speed Stream (HSS), yesterday 13:45 UT. The SW speed increased from 350 to 620 km/h due to this event. The total magnetic field (Bt) varied between 5 and 12 nT, while its north-south component (Bz) fluctuated between -11 and 11 nT as a result of the HSS arrival. The interplanetary magnetic field (phi) angle was predominantly positive (directed away from the Sun) during the last 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain under the influence of the HSS for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached globally minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 2-5) and locally active levels (K Belgium 2-4) over the last 24 hours as a result of the arrival of a HSS yesterday. In the next 24 hours the global conditions are expected to remain mostly active (Kp 4) with sort periods of minor storm conditions (Kp 5).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 085, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	019
Estimated Ap	020
Estimated international sunspot number	083 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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