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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Nov 02 1242 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Nov 2022	127	013
03 Nov 2022	126	010
04 Nov 2022	126	011

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at low levels with only two C-class flares. NOAA AR 3135 (beta) remains the largest and most complex active region on the visible disk, but has produced only a single low C-class flare. The remaining flaring activity was produced from behind the east limb. NOAA 3133 (alpha) and NOAA 3131 (beta) have remained mostly stable. The newly rotated active regions NOAA 3137 (beta) and NOAA 3138 (beta) have remained inactive. New sunspots have emerged in the south-east and north-east quadrants, near S12E05 and N20E50, but have remained quiet and unnumbered. The flaring activity is expected to continue at very low to low levels over the next 24 hours with isolated C-class flaring.

A large filament erupted in the north-west quadrant in the early afternoon on Nov 1st. The resulting coronal mass ejection (CME) is estimated to have no impact at Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has oscillated around the1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to cross the 1000 pfu threhold again over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence has been at moderate levels and is expected to be at the border of moderate to low levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the continuous influence of a high speed stream (HSS) from a positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity has varied between 409 to 485 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly enhanced with a maximum value of 8 nT. The Bz component registered a minimum value of -6.7 nT. The magnetic field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours under the continuous influence of the HSS.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to unsettled with a single isolated active period as registered globally by the NOAA Kp index between 03 and 06 UTC on Nov 2nd. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 091, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Nov 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	078 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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