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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Dec 06 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Dec 2022	150	003
07 Dec 2022	152	006
08 Dec 2022	154	014

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low level with several C-class flares being detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a C2.0 flare, peaking at 17:01 UT on Dec 05, associated with Catania sunspot group 12 (NOAA AR 3158). Catania sunspot groups 9, 11 and 13 (NOAA ARs 3155, 3156 and 3157) were inactive. Catania sunspot groups 8 and 12 (NOAA ARs 3153 and 3158) produced only low-level C-class flares in the last day. As there are no complex active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disk, solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

During last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to continue to exceed this threshold over the next day. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal to moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed showed a gradually decreasing trend, decreasing from 520 km/s to values around 390 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained about 4 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). A large trans-equatorial negative polarity coronal hole has crossed the central meridian on Dec 05. The solar wind originating from this equatorial coronal hole is expected at Earth from Dec 07.

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA KP 1-3 and Local K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet levels during next hours until the arrival of the expected HSS.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 115, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	116
10cm solar flux	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	110 - Based on 06 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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