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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Dec 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Dec 2022	144	017
10 Dec 2022	146	018
11 Dec 2022	147	006

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low level with several C-class flares being detected in the last 24 hours. The X-ray flux background has been mostly at the C level since 08UTC on Dec 09. The largest flare was a C1.8 flare, peaking at 11:07 UTC on Dec 09, associated with AR behind the east limb (S19E89), that is currently rotating onto the disk. It is expected to increase the probability of C-class flares. Catania sunspot group 9 (NOAA AR 3155) will rotate over the west solar limb in the next hours. Catania sunspot groups 8 and 13(NOAA ARs 3153 and 3157) became magnetically more complex (from beta to beta-gamma class) but produced only low C-class flare and B-class flares in the last 24 hours. Catania sunspot groups 11, 12, 14, 15 and 16 (NOAA ARs 3161, 3158, 3159, 3156 and 3160) were inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

During last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold value of 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the next days due to arrival of HSS. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level and is expected to remain at normal level in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions reflected the ongoing influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed remained about 550 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 6 and 10 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be elevated in the next 24 hours with gradually decrease over the next days, as the influence of the HSS begins to wane.

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet up to active levels (NOAA KP 1-4 and Local K Dourbes 1-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active, with possible isolated minor storm periods during next hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 121, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	132 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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