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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Dec 11 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Dec 2022	147	005
12 Dec 2022	149	005
13 Dec 2022	149	006

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low level, with most of the flares originating from the NOAA AR 3163, that has rotated on the disk in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a C5.2 flare, peaking at 16:11 UTC on Dec 10 associated with the NOAA AR 3163. Catania sunspot group 12 (NOAA AR 3158) decayed into a plage region and is currently rotating over the west solar limb. There are presently seven active regions observed on the visible side of the Sun, all of them have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta). The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

During last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold value of 1000 pfu during the last 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the next days due to arrival of HSS. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions reflected the waning influence of the high-speed stream. The solar wind speed ranged between 430 km/s and 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude gradually decreased from 8 nT to 5 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to gradually decrease over the next 24 hours.

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet up to unsettled levels (NOAA KP 1-3 and Local K Dourbes 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected at quiet levels during next hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 154, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	142
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	131 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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