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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Dec 25 1257 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Dec 2022	128	008
26 Dec 2022	128	007
27 Dec 2022	128	007

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low levels with few C-class flares observed. The solar sunspot NOAA-AR 3172 and NOAA-AR 3173 have declined to Alpha magnetic-complexity region, while NOAA-AR 3170 and NOAA- AR 3174 have declined into solar plages. The bipolar sunspot region, NOAA- AR 3169, was the most active region and produced several C-class flares; The larger flare was a C7.8-class flare peaking at 07:01 UTC on December 25. A type II Radio Emission was associated to the C7.8-class flare, which may indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with the flare event. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain at low levels with some C-class flares.

Few narrow coronal mass ejections and flows were observed in the current available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past days. Currently no observed indication of coronal mass ejections associated with the type II Radio Emission. The slow speed coronal mass ejections observed on December 24 around 02:30 UTC and on December 24 around 08:30 UTC were associated to filaments eruptions located in the north-east quadrant and north-west quadrant respectively. However, no clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified. At most glancing blows may reach the solar wind environment near Earth with very weak impact into the measurements.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was fluctuating around the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours due to the fast wind streams observed in the solar wind conditions; It is expected to remain around the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence increased over the past 24 hours and is currently at moderate levels; It is expected to remain at elevated around moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Earth is currently under the influence of the fast solar wind streams. The solar wind parameters are enhanced due to the arrival of the high-speed stream associated to the equatorial coronal holes (positive polarity) reaching to the central meridian of the Sun on December 20. The solar wind speed reached values of 600 - 700 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field remained slightly enhanced and reached values up to 7.5 nT with the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, ranging between -6.6 nT and 6.5 nT. The solar wind enhancement is expected to slowly start to return to a slow wind regime by the end of this 24-hour periods.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were active (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL 4) in response to the enhanced solar wind condition. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to become quiet with unsettled periods as the Earth is entering the slow solar wind speed regime.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 118, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	133
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	024
Estimated Ap	027
Estimated international sunspot number	094 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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