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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Dec 30 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Dec 2022	160	031
31 Dec 2022	160	029
01 Jan 2023	160	017

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity again reached moderate levels. A double peaked M2 flare originated again from at or beyond the northeastern limb peaking at 18:20UTC and 18:33UTC. Further C-class flaring was also observed from NOAA active region 3179 that newly emerged to the south of NOAA active region 3173 (Catania group 29). Catania group 23 (NOAA active region 3169) is has now rotated behind the west limb. Apart from the newly emerged NOAA active region 3179, also new flux emerge of opposite polarity was observed ahead of the leading spot of NOAA active region 3176 (Catania sunspot group 31). The region that is rotating into view on the northeast and that was the source of the recent M flares is now numbered NOAA active region 3180 but its proximity to the limb is still preventing detailed analysis. Flaring at C level is expected, with a significant chance for new M-class flares.

No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached over the 1000 pfu threshold and may do so again today. The electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

A positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere has transited the central meridian in the past days and is currently influencing solar wind conditions.

Solar wind conditions have become elevated under the anticipated influence of the high speed stream from the coronal hole in the northern hemisphere. Solar wind speed increased to over 500 km/s before midnight and has been hovering around that value since. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field increased gradually to around 12nT currently. The orientation of the magnetic field indicated connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun) with a variable north-south component (Bz ranging between -10nT to 12nT). Elevated solar wind conditions are expected continue today and into tomorrow, before starting to settle down on January 1.

Geomagnetic conditions were active with also a minor geomagnetic storm episode recorded both locally and globally (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes reaching 5). Active conditions are expected over the next 24 to 48 hours with isolated minor geomagnetic storm periods possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 144, based on 01 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	124 - Based on 08 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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