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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jan 22 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Jan 2023	205	010
23 Jan 2023	200	012
24 Jan 2023	200	013

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low level in the past 24 hours with several C-class flares being detected. The X-ray flux background remained at the C level. The largest flare was a C8.3 flare, peaking at 10:50 UTC on Jan 22, associated with active region NOAA 3192 (beta-gamma class). Active region NOAA 3190, that gained complexity from beta-gamma to beta-gamma- delta class, produced only two C-class flares. Active region NOAA 3195 decayed into a plage. Active regions NOAA 3184 and NOAA 3186 rotated over the west solar limb. The solar flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to continue at background C-class flaring with isolated M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours but could become enhanced over the next 24 hours with chances of reaching minor radiation storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed showed a gradually decreasing trend, decreasing from 500 km/s to values around 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was was between 4 nT to 7 nT. The Bz ranged between -6 to 4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to gradually decrease over the next 24 hours, as the influence of the HSS wanes.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with remaining minor chances for isolated active periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 159, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	209
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	019
Estimated international sunspot number	199 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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