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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Feb 15 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Feb 2023	178	018
16 Feb 2023	174	008
17 Feb 2023	170	006

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M2.6 flare, peaking at 12:12 UT February 14. This was associated with NOAA AR 3213 on the north west limb, which also produced three further low level M-class flares. This region has now rotated over the west limb. NOAA AR3220 also produced a C5.7 flare with an associated eruption. NOAA AR 3225 exhibited sunspot growth, but was quiet. NOAA AR 3226, 3217, 3214 and 3216 were stable. The remaining regions on the solar disk are all relatively small and have not produced any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO C2 data from February 15 02:00 UT directed to the south east. This CME was associated with a filament eruption following the C5.7 flare from NOAA 3220. Due to its origin and angular width, this CME may be Earth directed and a full analysis is ongoing to estimate the possible arrival time.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of a proton event exceeding the 10pfu threshold, due to the number of complex regions on disk. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was elevated but remained under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal to moderate levels and is expected to decrease to nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected a possible ICME arrival from 22:00 UT on February 14. The solar wind speed increased slightly from 316 Km/s to over 340 km/s at this time. The total interplanetary magnetic field increased sharply from 4 to 7nT, before continuing to increase to a maximum of 13 nT. Bz was predominantly negative, with an extended period of negative Bz reaching -10 nT between 04:00 and 09:00 UT. The interplanetary magnetic field is expected to remain slightly enhanced on February 15 due to the ongoing CME influence. From February 16, the solar wind conditions are expected to gradually return to slow solar wind regime.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active to minor storm levels (Local K Belgium = 4 and NOAA KP = 5). Active conditions are likely on February 15 due to ongoing CME influences, returning to quiet to unsettled conditions for February 16 to 17.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 152, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Feb 2023

Wolf number Catania	204
10cm solar flux	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	176 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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