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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Feb 24 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Feb 2023	147	010
25 Feb 2023	147	010
26 Feb 2023	147	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity has remained low, with the largest flare just a C8.9 flare peaking at 18:19UTC from Catania group 94 (NOAA active region 3234). Further flaring at similar level was seen from Catania group 96 (NOAA active region 3235) and Catania group 93 (NOAA active region 3230). A new region, NOAA active region 3236, emerged on disc to the east of Catania group 93 (NOAA active region 3230). Most regions showed mild decay while Catania group 94 (NOAA active region 3234) remains the most complex region with opposite magnetic flux in the trailing section. Flaring at C level is expected with also still a very significant chance for M flaring.

No Earth directed CMEs have been identified in coronagraph images.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remains so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

An equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity started to transit the central meridian this morning and is expected to influence solar wind conditions starting late February 27.

Solar wind speed has seen peaks over 600km/s but this morning decreased steadily to under 500km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 10nT but is now back at a nominal 5nT value. The orientation of the magnetic field was steady in the positive sector (field away from the Sun) until around 23UTC when it started a gradual shift over the negative sector back into the positive sector. It does not appear to be the switch into the negative sector that was anticipated. It is unclear if any speed increase associated to the extension of the southern polar coronal hole must still be expected. Solar wind conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled until late February 27 when we may start to see an increase to high solar wind conditions associated to the coronal hole currently crossing the central meridian.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (local K Belgium and NOAA Kp 1-4). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 120, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Feb 2023

Wolf number Catania	154
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	028
Estimated Ap	023
Estimated international sunspot number	109 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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