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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Mar 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Mar 2023	175	004
11 Mar 2023	172	003
12 Mar 2023	168	003

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels but frequent in the last 24 hours, with more than 10 C-class flares recorded. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3245 (magnetic class Beta-Gamma, Catania group 10) produced half of the C-class flares, among them the brightest, a C7 at 10 Mar 07:08 UT. More C-class flare activity is expected in the next 24 hours, mostly from NOAA AR 3245 and 3242 (magnetic class Beta-Gamma). There is also a small chance of an isolated M-class mainly form the two AR mentioned previously.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A partial halo CME automatically detected by CACTUS yesterday 12:24 UT is judged to be a back-sided event.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu for short intervals yesterday and has remained below the threshold since yesterday 17:00 UT. It is expected to remain blow the alert level for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels yesterday but dropped to low levels today 00:00 UT. It is expected to remain at low levels in the next 24 hours.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are now typical of the slow SW regime. A glancing blow caused by the passing-by of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) affected the SW up to today 07:00 UT. The SW speed gradually dropped from 470 to 400 km/s during the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Bt) varied between 1 and 9 nT, while its North-South (Bz) component fluctuated between -7 and 9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed towards the Sun over the last 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain in the slow wind regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally mostly moderate and only active for a short period of time during the last 24 hours (NOAA Kp 4 00:00-03:00, K Doubres 4 15:00-18:00 UT). The geomagnetic conditions are expected to become quiet in the next 24 hours since the effects of a CME that passed-by the Earth's environment are now over.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 148, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Mar 2023

Wolf number Catania	195
10cm solar flux	179
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	157 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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