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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Mar 16 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Mar 2023	138	019
17 Mar 2023	136	011
18 Mar 2023	134	008

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity remained at low levels over the past 24 hours. Only two C-class flares were detected: C1.0 flare peaking at 22:16 UTC on March 15 and C1.3 flare peaking at 06:43 UTC on March 16, both associated with unnumbered active region near N23W21. As there are no complex active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disk, the flaring activity is expected to continue at very low to low levels over the next 24 hours with isolated C-class flaring.

During last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton has returned to near the nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to be at the nominal levels over the next day. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

An equatorial coronal hole of positive polarity started to transit the central meridian this morning and is expected to influence solar wind conditions starting late March 19.

Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated due to the influence of the high-speed stream coming from coronal hole (positive polarity) and ICME. The solar wind speed values were between 480 km/s and 580 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 4 nT and 13 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -12 nT and 13 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be elevated in the next 24 hours due to the combination of the possible arrival of glancing blow of CME from the filament eruption observed on March 13, and ongoing influence of the HSS, with gradually decrease over the next days, as the influence of the HSS begins to wane.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active both globally and locally (K-Bel=1-4 NOAA-Kp=1-4) with isolated moderate storm period globally (NOAA- Kp = 6) and minor storm period locally (K Belgium reaching 5) at around 21:00 UTC on March 15. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active in the next days, with a chance of isolated minor storm periods during next days due to influence of the HSS and possible glancing blow from the CMEs.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 097, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Mar 2023

Wolf number Catania	135
10cm solar flux	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	028
Estimated Ap	027
Estimated international sunspot number	106 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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