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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Mar 21 1301 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Mar 2023	155	012
22 Mar 2023	150	009
23 Mar 2023	155	010

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a long-duration C4.4-class, peak time 15:34 UTC on March 20th, produced by NOAA AR 3258, which underwent some development and is now classified as magnetic type beta. The largest active region on the visible disk, NOAA 3256 (beta) has developed new sun spots, but remained mostly silent. Most of the C-class faring activity was produced by NOAA AR 3258 (beta), NOAA AR 3259 (beta) and NOAA AR 3257 (beta) with an isolated minor activity from NOAA AR 3252 from behind the west limb. A new active region, magnetic type beta, has further developed to the south-east of NOAA AR 3251 (alpha), but has remained silent. The solar flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at low levels with small chances for isolated M-class flaring.

A filament erupted in the north-east quadrant near NOAA AR 3258 around 13:00 UTC on March 20th and long duration C4.4-class flaring was produced near N32E28 starting at 14:07 UTC. A resulting coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in the LASCO/C2 imagery around 15 UTC. The bulk of the CME is far off the Sun-Earth line, but a glancing blow could reach Earth on March 23rd. Another wide CME lifted off the south-west quadrant around 14:14 UTC on March 20th and was accompanied by large scale magnetic field reconfiguration. Current analysis suggests no impact at Earth related to this eruption.

Over the past 24 hours the 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained at slightly elevated levels, well below minor radiation storm levels. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of slightly enhanced slow solar wind conditions with a weak transient passing by around noon on March 20th, possibly related to a mild glancing blow influence from the CMEs on March 17th, and a mild increase in temperature, velocity and magnetic field possibly a precursor of a mild high speed stream arrival. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 387 to 485 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 11.2 nT with a minimum Bz of -8 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with brief periods in the negative sector. The solar wind parameters over the next 24 hours are expected to remain slightly enhanced due to an expected mild high speed stream arrival.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet to active and locally quiet to unsettled over Belgium. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with possible isolated minor storms.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 093, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Mar 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	080 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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