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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Apr 30 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Apr 2023	152	010
01 May 2023	145	006
02 May 2023	140	005

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low but frequent during the last 24 hours. Around 10 C-class flares were detected, with the brightest being a C7 today at 08:49 UT from NOAA AR 3288 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma- Delta, Catania group 67). However, most of the flaring activity of the past 24 hours was produced by another region, NOAA AR 3285 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania group 65), which is closely located to NOAA AR 3288. More C-class flare activity is almost certain for the next 24 hours, with a small chance of an M-class flares from the cluster of NOAA AR 3285, 3288, and NOAA plage 3286.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the past 24 hours with the exception of two short intervals. It is expected to continue in the same pattern and remain above the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the time in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at those levels for the next 24 hours.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are still affected by a High Speed Stream (HSS) that arrived at 28 Apr, however the effect is now waning. The SW speed gradually decreased from a peak of 720 km/s to about 500 km/s during the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 3 nT and 6 nT and its North-South (Bz) component fluctuated between -6 and 4 nT during the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was almost exclusively directed towards the Sun over the last 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to subside significantly the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally moderate to quiet (NOAA Kp 4- to 3- and K BEL 2 to 3) during the last 24 hours. For the next 24 hours they are expected to become quiet with short periods of moderate conditions, both globally and locally.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 102, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Apr 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	021
Estimated international sunspot number	109 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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