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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 May 25 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 May 2023	162	015
26 May 2023	162	020
27 May 2023	162	005

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at moderate levels with two low M-class flares. The strongest activity was an impulsive M1.9 flare, start time 17:04 UTC, end time 17:48 UTC, peak time 17:26 UTC on May 24th produced by NOAA AR 3311 (beta-gamma). This region was the main driver for the flaring activity and remains most complex region on the visible solar disc. Isolated low C-class flaring was produced by the largest region, NOAA AR 3310 (beta), and by NOAA AR 3312 (beta). Both regions exhibited some growth. Isolated low to high C-class flaring was also produced by NOAA AR 3314 (beta), which has exhibited growth and is now better separated from NOAA AR 3311 (beta- gamma). NOAA AR 3315 (beta) has developed more trailing spots and enlarged its area, but remained quiet.The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low to moderate levels over the next days with small chances for an isolated X-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) Solar wind parameters reflected the continuous influence of a high speed stream (HSS) from a negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 447 km/s to 689 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 6.6 nT and a minimum Bz of -6 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated over the next days with the ongoing HSS passage and possible glancing blow arrival late on May 25th and May 26th.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with chances for isolated minor storms under the ongoing high speed stream influence and due to a possible glancing blow ICME passage late on May 25th and May 26th.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days with possible enhancements in case of increased levels of solar activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold for prolonged periods of time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at elevated levels in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 144, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 24 May 2023

Wolf number Catania	190
10cm solar flux	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	145 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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