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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jun 17 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Jun 2023	163	018
18 Jun 2023	168	010
19 Jun 2023	165	009

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1 flare peaking at 19:59 UTC on June 16, associated with NOAA AR 3331. NOAA AR 3335 and 3333 exhibited sunspot growth and are the most complex regions on the solar disk. The other regions on the disk (NOAA AR 3338 and 3336) are magnetically simpler but continue to produce low level C-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

In the last 24 hours there were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Koronální díra

A small positive negative polarity coronal hole and a larger negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere began to transit the central meridian on June 17.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions reflected the continued influence of the high speed stream. The interplanetary magnetic field decreased from 8 nT to around 4nT. Bz had a minimum value of -6nT and was predominantly negative. The solar wind speed decreased from 650 km/s to values around 550 km/s. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards from the Sun). Over the next 24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed are expected to continue to slowly decrease under the waning influence of the high speed stream.

Geomagnetism

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions reached active conditions (NOAA KP 2-4 and K-Bel 2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels over the next days, with further active intervals possible on June 17 while the solar wind speed remains elevated.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was increasing but remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to exceed this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at moderate levels for the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 127, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Jun 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	032
Estimated Ap	034
Estimated international sunspot number	127 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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