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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jun 19 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Jun 2023	166	011
20 Jun 2023	163	009
21 Jun 2023	158	013

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours. There were two M-class flares, an M2 from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3336 (magnetic type Beta) that peaked yesterday 13:53 UT and an M1 today at 03:50 UT from an AR currently turning to Earth's view at S12E89. Numerous C-class flares were detected during the last 24 hours, mostly from NOAA AR 3335 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma, Catania group 33), 3340 (magnetic type Beta), and the AR at S12E89. Further isolated M-class flaring activity is possible in the next 24 hours, mostly from the group of NOAA AR 3335 and 3336, or the yet-unnamed AR at S12E89.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

The large filament eruption from 17:57 UTC June 17 and first reported yesterday is estimated to give a glancing blow to Earth's environment either late in 22 June or early the next day. A Corona Mass Ejection (CME) automatically detected by CACTus yesterday 14:20 UT does not appear to have an Earth-directed component.

Solární bouře

The solar wind (SW) conditions have now returned to a typical slow SW regime. The SW speed ranged between 370 and 420 km/s in the last 24 hours. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 4 and 8 nT and its North-South component (Bz) ranged between -7 and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was almost exclusively directed towards the Sun during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to register the arrival of a small High Speed Stream (HSS) in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were moderate to quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 2- to 3 and K BEL 2 to 3) during the past 24 hours. They are expected to remain at the same level both globally and locally for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold yesterday between 06:36 and 18:30 UT. It has remained below this level since, however it is expected to again increase above the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at moderate levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 182, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Jun 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	156 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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