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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jun 25 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Jun 2023	160	015
26 Jun 2023	155	011
27 Jun 2023	152	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with an M1 flare yesterday 12:17 UT from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3337 (magnetic class Beta, Catania group 43). NOAA AR 3335 (magnetic class Beta, Catania group 33) produced more of the C-class flaring activity including the two brightest C-class flares, a C6 and a C5. NOAA AR 3340 (magnetic class Beta, Catania group 38) also produced a significant number of C-class flares in the past 24 hours. Isolated M-class events are likely in the next 24 hours, mostly from either of NOAA AR 3335, 3337, or 3340.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A small northern coronal hole with negative polarity crossed the solar meridian yesterday. It is expected to have a small impact to geomagnetic conditions around the 28 June.

Solární bouře

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were affected by the arrival of a relatively week High Speed Stream (HSS) yesterday. The SW speed gradually increased from 450 to 550 km/h since the arrival of the HSS. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) first dropped to 3 nT and then increased to 13 nT, while its North-South component (Bz) was mostly negative reaching -11 nT and then increased up to 7 nT during the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately directed towards the Sun during the past 24 hours. The HSS is expected to be short-lived and start waning in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions reach minor storm levels (NOAA Kp=5) today 00:00-03:00 UT, as a result of the arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) yesterday. For the rest of the past 24 hours they were at quiet to active levels (NOAA Kp 2 to 4+). At the local level the geomagnetic conditions become unsettled (K BEL=3) for the last 24 hours. As the effects of the HSS are expected to start waning soon, the conditions are expected to be quiet to active globally and quiet to unsettled locally in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached but not exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold yesterday at 14:45 and 16:45 UT. It is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels for the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain at these levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 202, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Jun 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	214 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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