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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jun 28 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Jun 2023	151	007
29 Jun 2023	151	007
30 Jun 2023	151	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the last 24 hours with two M-class flares. The M1.3 and M1.9-class flares were produced at 15:14 UTC on Jun 27 and at 08:44 on Jun 28 by the currently most complex region on the disc, NOAA Active Region AR-3340 (Beta-gamma). The other active regions were also active producing several C-class flares. We expect the activity remaining mostly at low levels with several C-class flares, and possible isolated M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the SOHO/LASCO coronograph images over the past 24 hours. No clear signature of a CME following the solar coronal dimming observed yesterday around 01:20 UTC could be identified. Therefore we do not expect any visible impact into the solar wind parameters associated to this event in the coming days.

Solární bouře

The solar wind parameters show that the Earth is now in the slow solar wind regime. The wind speed was between 450 km/s to 500 km/h. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was below 6.4 nT. The southward component (Bz) was fluctuating between -5.2 nT and 3.9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately negative, directed toward the Sun during the past 24 hours. The solar wind condition is expected to remain mostly close to nominal values in the next hours. Then mild enhancement is expected due to the arrival of the high-speed streams from the coronal hole (negative polarity) that crossed the solar meridian on Jun 24.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp<3) with some periods of unsettled conditions observed by the local stations in Belgium (K_BEL = 3). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet . Possible unsettled to active condition may be expected with the solar wind enhancement due to the arrival of the high-speed streams associated with the coronal hole (negative polarity) that crossed the solar meridian on Jun 24.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold for a short period. It is expected to remain close to the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels for the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain at these levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 140, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Jun 2023

Wolf number Catania	163
10cm solar flux	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	155 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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