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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Sep 25 1239 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Sep 2023	176	029
26 Sep 2023	176	038
27 Sep 2023	172	015

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.0-flare, with peak time 15:00 UTC on September 24, produced by NOAA AR 3443 (beta-gamma). NOAA AR 3445 also produced a C9.9-flare at 08:14 on September 25. There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible. NOAA AR 3441 (beta) is decaying magnetically and will rotate off the visible disk in the next days while NOAA AR 3435 (beta-delta) and NOAA AR 3445 (beta-delta) have become more magnetically complex, all other regions have simple alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low chance for isolated X-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A partial halo CME with angular width around 150 degrees was first seen erupting towards the North West by LASCO-C2 at 09:48 UTC on 24 September. This CME is backsided and not expected to affect the Earth. A CME directed to the West was observed in LASCO C2 data at 18:36 UTC on September 24. No on-disk signature is visible. This CME also seems to be backsided.

Solární bouře

A shock in the solar wind at 19:54 UTC on 24 September marks the arrival of the ICME from 21 September. The solar wind speed jumped from 315 km/s to 440 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field from 7 to 19 nT. The speed later reached 508 km/s and the magnetic field 34 nT with Bz down to -27 nT. The Earth is under the influence of the ICME and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were moderate storm levels globally (Kp 6) and minor storms locally (K_Bel 5). Moderate to major geomagnetic conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly elevated but stayed below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 stayed below threshold value. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 184, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Sep 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	044
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	024
Estimated international sunspot number	191 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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