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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Oct 03 1243 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Oct 2023	158	007
04 Oct 2023	158	007
05 Oct 2023	158	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours reached moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.9-flare, with peak time 12:46 UTC on October 02, associated with NOAA AR 3455 (beta magnetically complexity). There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disc, NOAA AR 3450 (beta-gamma) remains stable and is the most magnetically complex regions on the disc, all other regions have simple alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at quiet to moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a low chance for isolated X-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections have been detected in the last 24 hours available SOHO/LASCO images.

Koronální díra

Two small positive polarity coronal holes close to the equator have crossed the central meridian yesterday on October 02, and on October 01.

Solární bouře

In the last 24 hours, the solar wind condition near Earth was stable with the solar wind parameters showing a slow wind speed regime. The total interplanetary magnetic field was below 7.5 nT. The Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic fluctuated between positive and negative values with a minimum value of -6.9 nT. The solar wind speed had values varying between 325 km/s and 480 km/s. The phi-angle was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 12-24 hours then later some enhancement due to the wind speed associate to the small coronal holes (2 small positive polarity coronal holes that crossed the central meridian on October 01 and 02) may be observed in the solar wind parameters recorded near Earth.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet with one period of unsettled condition (Kp-NOAA, K-Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions is expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the last 24 hours. It expected to mostly remain at background level, however possible rise of the proton flux cannot be fully excluded due to the current number of complex region and the flaring activity on the disc.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected remains below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 145, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Oct 2023

Wolf number Catania	191
10cm solar flux	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	175 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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