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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Oct 05 1242 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Oct 2023	153	010
06 Oct 2023	153	012
07 Oct 2023	153	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was quiet with only one small C-class flare beside the number of complex regions on the solar disc visible from Earth. There are currently 8 numbered active regions with alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at quiet levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, and a low chance for isolated M-class flares and X-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) have been detected in the last 24 hours in the available SOHO/LASCO images.

Solární bouře

In the last 24 hours, the solar wind conditions near Earth were enhanced due to the arrival of solar wind streams associated to 2 small positive polarity coronal holes that crossed the central meridian on October 01 and 02. The total interplanetary magnetic field was ranging between 5.0 nT and 9.1 nT. The Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic showed mainly negative values with a minimum value of -7.9 nT. The solar wind speed had values varying between 388 km/s and 478 km/s. The phi-angle was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind is expected to remain slightly enhanced before returning to nominal conditions.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were unsettled locally (K Bel 3) and active (Kp-NOAA 4) due to the enhanced solar wind conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain at background levels.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected remains below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 170, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Oct 2023

Wolf number Catania	206
10cm solar flux	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	159 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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