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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Oct 28 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Oct 2023	126	017
29 Oct 2023	128	022
30 Oct 2023	128	027

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels, with several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C1.7 flare, peaking at 06:27 on Oct 28. The flare was associated with NOAA AR 3473 (beta class), which produced most of the flaring activity over the period. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low level over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions became slightly disturbed with the total interplanetary magnetic field rose to 13 nT at around 06:50 UTC on Oct 28. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between -8 nT and 6 nT. The solar wind speed followed an increasing trend, rising from 345 km/s to 480 km/s. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated during the next days, with a further enhancement possible on Oct 29 - 30 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal holes.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to unsettled (NOAA-Kp=1-3) with a single active period registered globally (NOAA-Kp=4) during the interval 09-12 UTC on Oct 28. Locally only quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=1-3) conditions were observed over Belgium. Unsettled conditions with possible active and minor storm intervals are expected on Oct 28 and the start of Oct 29. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with a chance for isolated minor to moderate storm period from late on Oct 29 with expected high speed stream arrival from a positive polarity coronal holes.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 051, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Oct 2023

Wolf number Catania	103
10cm solar flux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	037
Estimated international sunspot number	062 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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