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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Nov 04 1302 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Nov 2023	158	008
05 Nov 2023	158	016
06 Nov 2023	156	044

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with background C-class flaring. The strongest activity was a C4.6 flare, peak time 01:32 UTC on Nov 3rd, from the newly numbered region near the east limb, NOAA 3480 (beta-gamma). Isolated low C-class flaring was observed from regions NOAA 3472 (beta), NOAA 3473 (alpha) and NOAA 3477 (beta). NOAA AR 3474 (beta-gamma) has shown some decay and remained silent. NOAA AR 3479 (alpha) decreased its complexity and NOAA AR 3476 decayed into plage, while NOAA AR 3488 (alpha) remained stable and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with likely C-class flaring and some chances for isolated M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

The coronal mass ejection (CME) first seen in the LASCO/C2 images around 05:36 UTC related to the large filament in the north-west quadrant is estimated to arrive to Earth during in the late evening of Nov 5th or early morning on Nov 6th. Another partial halo CME in the south-west quadrant resulted from a secondary eruption and was first observed in LASCO/C2 at 10:12 UTC on Nov 3rd. Based on its trajectory and source location the CME is deemed to miss Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronální díra

A large negative polarity coronal hole spreading from the equatorial bands to mid-latitudes towards the south pole is now reaching the central meridian. A fast speed stream from it is expected to arrive to Earth on Nov 7th.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were mostly indicative of a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind velocity was in the range of 287 km/s to 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 6.5 nT and a minimum Bz of -3.3 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to be elevated over the next days with several anticipated ICME arrivals on Nov 5th - Nov 7th and a high speed stream arrival on Nov 7th - Nov 9th. The solar wind conditions are currently showing the arrival of some disturbance, whose nature will be determined as more data comes in.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet. Mostly quiet to active conditions are expected for Nov 4th with chances for isolated minor storm levels. Minor storm levels are possible on Nov 5th and moderate to severe geomagnetic storm levels are expected on Nov 6th with several anticipated ICME arrivals on the way to Earth. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are expected to persist through Nov 7th with an anticipated ongoing ICME influence and a high speed stream arrival from a negative polarity coronal hole.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days. Slight increase was observed both by GOES and STEREO A proton particle fluxes related to the large filament and consequent partial halo CME on Nov 3rd. The increase was far from reaching any radiation storm levels.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to oscillate around and above this threshold until Nov 05th.The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so until Nov 6th and decrease to nominal levels after.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 097, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	132 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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