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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Nov 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Nov 2023	124	007
16 Nov 2023	120	007
17 Nov 2023	116	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are six active regions visible on the disk. Solar activity was driven by the active regions rotating out of view over the west limb. There is a new region that rotated into view, NOAA AR 3488 (alpha magnetic field configuration). The strongest flare was an M1.1 from NOAA AR 3485 (beta magnetic field configuration) peaking at 23:05 UTC on 14 November. More M-class flares can occur in the next 24 hours.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.

Solární bouře

In the last 24 hours, the solar wind conditions at the Earth have returned to a slow wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field is around 7nT and the solar wind speed around 450 km/s. Similar conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled globally (NOAA KP 3) and reached active levels locally (K_Bel 4). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels. Due to the proximity to the west limb of an active region producing M-class flares, a warning condition for proton events is active for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold, as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels, it is expected to stay at those levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 036, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	071
10cm solar flux	124
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	060 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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