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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jan 27 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Jan 2024	155	004
28 Jan 2024	150	007
29 Jan 2024	145	004

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low during the last 24 hours with NOAA Active Region (AR) 3561 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 45) producing almost all the activity. NOAA AR 3561 is expected to continue producing C-class flares but in a further reduced rate in the next 24 hours. NOAA AR 3560 (magnetic configuration Beta), 3559 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 43) and two yet-unnamed AR currently into Earth's view, are also likely to produce isolated C-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data. A partial halo CME automatically detected by CACTus today 03:36 UT is judged to be back-sided and thus not geo-effective.

Solární bouře

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions of the last 24 hours are typical of the slow wind regime. A glancing blow from the passing of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) nearby only caused a very minor effect yesterday evening. The SW speed increased to 500 but has since dropped to 400 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 4 and 9 nT and its North-South component ranged between -7 and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle has fluctuated between directed towards and away from the Sun in almost equal measures during the last 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to be affected by another glancing blow in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1+ to 3- and K BEL 1 to 3) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to continue at these levels in the next 24 hours due to the expected arrival of a glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was well below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain at this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 064, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	104
10cm solar flux	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	082 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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