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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Feb 01 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Feb 2024	140	007
02 Feb 2024	144	001
03 Feb 2024	146	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C3.1 flare with peak time 07:43 UTC February 01 originating near the central meridian in the northern hemisphere (N25E02). A new sunspot group, Catania sunspot group 57, started to emerge rapidly to the east of this location at the same time (N25E17). Catania sunspot group 52 (NOAA AR 3565) and Catania sunspot group 54 (NOAA 3567) showed growth and produced multiple C-class flares. A new region rotated onto disk in the south-east quadrant (Catania sunspot group 59, NOAA AR 3571). The remaining Catania sunspot groups 50, 51, 53 and new regions 55 and 58 (NOAA Active Regions 3566, 3569 3568, 3570 and 3572 respectively) were quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, isolated M-class flares remain possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

The C3.1 flare located near the central meridian was also associated with an eruption that was first seen in LASCO-C2 data from 08:06 UTC February 01. This eruption was predominantly directed to the north-east but is likely to have an Earth directed component and analysis is ongoing.

Koronální díra

A small positive polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere continues to cross the central meridian since January 31.

Solární bouře

The solar wind parameters were relatively stable for most of the period ,with solar wind speed values between 380 and 450 km/s and a magnetic field strength of around 3 nT. From 05:18 UTC a magnetic structure is visible with is a small jump in the magnetic field strength from 3nT to 7nT, which may be associated with the expected shock from the January 29 CME. After this time the magnetic field strength varied between 4 and 8nT and Bz had a minimum value of -6nT. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun) with fluctuations during the passing of the magnetic structure. The magnetic field is expected to be slightly enhanced on February 01 while the solar wind speed is expected to decrease. On February 02 slow solar wind conditions are expected to dominate.

Geomagnetism

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (local K Bel 1-2 and NOAA Kp 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next days.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued to decrease and, although still slightly elevated, remained below the 10pfu threshold. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease over the next 24 hours

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next day.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 109, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 31 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	094 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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