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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Feb 03 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Feb 2024	153	007
04 Feb 2024	159	021
05 Feb 2024	164	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C7.7 flare with peak time 05:53 UTC. This flare originated from beyond the south-east limb along with many other C-class flares. Of the regions on disk, Catania sunspot group 59 (NOAA AR 3571) also produced C-class flares although it remains a simple (alpha) region. Catania sunspot group 56 showed extensive growth (NOAA AR 3575) and along with Catania sunspot group 52 (NOAA AR 3565) produced low- level C-class flares. Catania sunspot group 54 (NOAA AR 3567) reduced in size and complexity and was quiet. The remaining Catania sunspot groups 55, 57 and 60 (NOAA ARs 3570, 3573 and 3574) were quiet and stable. Catania sunspot group 58 (NOAA AR 3572) has decayed into a plage region. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected and M-class flares remain possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

The solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed decreased from 360 to around 300 km/s. The magnetic field strength ranged between 0 and 4nT. Bz had a minimum value of -3nT. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun) until 23:00 UTC Feb 02 when it switched to the positive sector. The solar wind parameters are expected to continue to reflect a slow solar wind regime on February 03. From February 04 the solar wind speed is expected to increase due to the possible arrival of the February 01 CME as well as the influence of the high-speed stream associated with the positive polarity coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on January 31.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (local K Bel 0-1 and NOAA Kp 0-1). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet levels on February 03, with active conditions possible from February 04.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux, although still slightly elevated, remained below the 10pfu threshold. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to increase slightly but remain below this threshold over the next day. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next day.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 114, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Feb 2024

Wolf number Catania	170
10cm solar flux	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	004
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	119 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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