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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Mar 16 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Mar 2024	129	007
17 Mar 2024	129	007
18 Mar 2024	129	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are four active regions visible on the solar disk. They all have simple beta or alpha magnetic field configuration. Flaring activity has decreased significantly since NOAA AR 3599 rotated out of view over the west limb yesterday. The strongest flare was a C1.8 from NOAA AR 3599, peaking at 12:09 UTC on 15 March. Minor C-class flaring can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Solární bouře

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds close to 400 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both global and locally (NOAA_Kp up to 2 and K_BEL up to 2). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The 10 MeV proton flux (measured by GOES-18) has raised above the 10 pfu threshold. The increase in proton flux started shortly after the eruption of the partial halo CME from 02:10 UTC on 15 March (LASCO C2), originating from NOAA AR 3599 slightly behind the west limb. These particles are accelerated by the CME driven shock and increased steadily at the Earth's location; they crossed the 10 pfu threshold close to 23:00 UTC on 15 March. The 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain elevated during the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 055, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	052
10cm solar flux	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	051 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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