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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Mar 22 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Mar 2024	181	010
23 Mar 2024	178	004
24 Mar 2024	172	004

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low during the last 24 hours with NOAA Active Regions (AR) 3614 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 21), 3615 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 22), and 3617 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 27) producing almost all the C-class flaring activity. Although NOAA AR 3615 has lost some of its magnetic complexity, it is still capable of producing an isolated M-class flare for the next 24 hours. Also NOAA AR 3617 has now become active, hence C-class and possibly M-class flaring activity is expected from this region in the next 24 hours.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A CME launched yesterday at 18:36 UTC can been seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images. It is associated with a filament eruption seen on disk and is not expected to be geo-effective.

Solární bouře

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained affected by the arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) of yesterday 01:50 UTC. The SW speed ranged from 310 to 370 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 6 and 13 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -12 and 11 nT and remained at low negative values for many hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle varied between being directed towards the Sun to be directed away from the Sun. The effects of the CME are expected to wane in the next 24 hours and the conditions to change towards a slow SW regime.

Geomagnetism

The global geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5) 24 hours ago and have since dropped to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 3). During the same period the local conditions raised to active levels (K BEL 4) and gradually dropped to quiet conditions (K BEL 2). In the next 24 hours they are expected to continue dropping both globally and locally and reach quiet levels globally.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 155, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	219
10cm solar flux	197
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	022
Estimated Ap	025
Estimated international sunspot number	168 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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