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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Mar 25 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sluneční protony

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Mar 2024	195	041
26 Mar 2024	192	032
27 Mar 2024	189	019

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. The largest flare of the period was an impulsive M4.4 flare with peak time 06:44 UTC March 25. This flare originated from Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615), which is the most complex region on disk (Beta- Gamma-Delta) and which continues to exhibit further growth. This region also produced an M1.3 flare, with peak time 13:00 UTC March 24, as well as multiple C-class flares. Catania region 21 (NOAA AR 3614) was quiet and decayed slightly. Two new regions were numbered, one in the north-east quadrant (numbered Catania region 32, NOAA AR 3622) and one emerged to the south-west of Catania region 22 (numbered Catania region 30). These and the other remaining regions on the disk were mostly quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for an X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions were enhanced due to the (earlier than expected) ICME arrival related to the halo CME first detected in LASCO/C2 data around 01:33 UTC on March 23. A fast forward shock was detected in the solar wind data (ACE) around 14:11 UTC on March 24. The solar wind speed jumped from 628 km/s to 821 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 11 nT to 17 nT. The total magnetic field was then variable reaching a maximum value of 34 nT at 16:05 UTC March 24. Initially, between 14:30 and 15:50 UTC, the Bz component was mostly negative with a minimum value of -27nT and then from 15:50 UTC March 24 turned mostly positive. The total magnetic field started to decrease slowly from 31 nT at 19:30 UTC March 24 to 06 nT at 12:00 UTC March 25. After the initial shock, the solar wind speed increased further and reached a maximum value of 880 km/s at 18:21 UTC March 24 and remained elevated for the whole period only gradually decreasing in the second half of the period to values around 730km/s. The Earth is expected to remain under the influence of this ICME over the next 24 hours with the high solar wind speed expected to persist on March 25 and 26 before decreasing gradually.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions reached major storm conditions (NOAA Kp 8 and Local K Bel 7) between 15:00 and 18:00 UTC coinciding with the arrival of the ICME. Conditions then reduced to moderate storm conditions (NOAA Kp 6 and Local K Bel 5) between 18:00 and 21:00 UTC. Further active and minor storm conditions were reported for the remainder of the period. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be reach active to minor storm conditions on March 25 and March 26, with further moderate storm conditions possible in response to any prolonged period of negative Bz while the Earth is still under the influence of the ICME.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained above the 10pfu threshold with a peak value of 890 MeV, as measured by GOES-16 at 12:30 UTC March 24. After this time, the flux began to decrease gradually and reached around 20 MeV by 12:00 UTC. The proton flux is expected to be just above the 10 Mev threshold for the next hours and to then gradually decrease to below with threshold during the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next day. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next day.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 168, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	195
AK Chambon La Forêt	074
AK Wingst	062
Estimated Ap	068
Estimated international sunspot number	165 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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