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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Mar 27 1239 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Mar 2024	170	017
28 Mar 2024	162	008
29 Mar 2024	156	005

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was moderate to high with 5 M-class flares. The largest flare of the period was an M1.9 flare with peak time 13:30 UTC March 26. This flare originated from Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615), which is the largest and most complex region on disk (Beta-Gamma-Delta). This region also produced three further M-class flares. Catania region 21 (NOAA AR 3614) produced a M1.7 flare with peak time 13:46 UTC March 26 but is now approaching the west limb. The remaining regions on disk were stable or in decay and mostly quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for an X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

The solar wind speed gradually decreased from values around 650 km/s to around 500 km/s due to the waning influence of the ICME which arrived on March 24. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 0 and 5 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum value of -3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease further on March 27 and slow solar wind conditions are expected on March 28 and 29.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3 and Local K Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on March 27 and March 28, with isolated active conditions possible for March 27, while the solar wind speed remains elevated.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was still slightly enhanced but remained below the 10pfu threshold. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease and remain below 10 Mev threshold over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to exceed this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to increase to normal to moderate levels over the next day.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 114, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	178
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	145 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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