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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 May 24 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
24 May 2024	176	014
25 May 2024	174	017
26 May 2024	172	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are seven visible ARs on the solar disk. Solar activity is high, there were five M-class flares in the last 24 hours, from NOAA 3679 (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration), NOAA 3685 (beta gamma magnetic field configuration) and NOAA 3689 (beta magnetic field configuration). The strongest one was an M2.4 flare peaking at 13:20 UTC on 23 May from AR 3679. For the next 24 hours, more M-class flares can be expected and X-class flares are possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A large filament erupted in the SE quadrant, creating a CME first seen by LASCO C2 at 01:12 UT on 23 May, followed by other minor eruptions in the vicinity. The CME angular width is about 80 degrees and the speed of about 400 km/s. This CME is directed mostly towards the SE and will most likely miss the Earth, but a glancing blow cannot be discarded on the second half of 27 May.

Koronální díra

A negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere has developed a low latitudinal extension that traversed the central meridian on 21 May. A possible arrival of high speed steam from this coronal hole could arrive at the Earth in the coming 24 hours.

Solární bouře

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 390 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. Slightly disturbed conditions (with the interplanetary magnetic field reaching 10 nT) have been observed in the last hours, this may be an early indication of the possible upcoming arrival of a high speed stream (with a mild effect) from a negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere, which can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels planetary (Kp up to 4) and unsettled locally (K_Bel up to 3). If the high speed solar wind stream expected for today arrives, up to minor storm conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in the past 24 hours. Since some of the regions producing the M-class flaring are close to the west limb, a proton event cannot be discarded in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 120, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 23 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	154
10cm solar flux	176
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	135 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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