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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jun 17 1242 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Jun 2024	167	012
18 Jun 2024	167	010
19 Jun 2024	167	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and two M-class flares. The two flares were M1.6 flare peaking at 08:04 UTC and at 10:46 UTC on June 17, associated with the most complex sunspot region NOAA- AR 3712 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently several sunspot groups on the solar disk, with NOAA AR 3712 (beta-gamma-delta) being the largest and the most complex one. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable and a small chance of X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed CMEs was identified and observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A large mid-latitude north coronal hole with negative polarity is reaching the central meridian.

Solární bouře

Solar wind conditions were slightly enhanced in the last 24 hours due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed showed a slide increase up to 500 km/s for several hours before returning to value around 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field is around 10 nT and the Bz component varied between -3.3 nT and 7.4 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to return to slow the solar wind regime.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were at active levels (NOAA Kp 4, K BEL 4) due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole. Mostly quiet conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 138, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Jun 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	151 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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