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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jun 21 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Jun 2024	204	013
22 Jun 2024	204	021
23 Jun 2024	204	013

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class and M-class flares. The largest flare was a M5.8 flare peaking at 23:13 UTC originated from NOAA active region 3719. There are currently six sunspot groups on the disc with NOAA active region 3719 producing the two M-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a small chance of X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronographe images over the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A large north midlatitude north coronal hole with negative polarity, which has crossed the central meridian on June 18 is on geoeffective location, now in the west side of the sun.

Solární bouře

Solar wind conditions have returned to slow wind regime in the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed decreased from around 501 km/s to 388 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained below 6 nT and the Bz component varied between -3 nT and 5 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain in a slow solar wind regime. Then the high-speed stream from the large north midlatitude north coronal hole with negative polarity is expected to reach Earth in the next period.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp 0-2, K BEL 1-2). Later, active conditions to minor storm may be observed later in the next period, in response of the high-speed stream from the large north midlatitude north coronal hole.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 148, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Jun 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	203
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	163 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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