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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Sep 17 1251 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Sep 2024	172	038
18 Sep 2024	172	018
19 Sep 2024	172	013

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at low levels with background high C-class flaring. The largest activity was C9.6-flare with peak time 23:57 UTC on Sept 16th associated with NOAA AR 3825 (beta-gamma). This region and NOAA AR 3824 (beta-gamma) are the largest and most complex regions on the visible solar disk and were responsible for most of the flaring activity over the past 24 hours. Further C-class flaring was produced by NOAA 3828 (alpha) near the south-east limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at low to moderate levels over the coming days with 55% chances of M-class flares and small chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A flat and narrow positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole is currently crossing the central meridian. A mild high speed stream associated to this coronal hole could reach Earth on Sept 20th.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered a transient ICME arrival. A fast-forward shock was registered in situ in the solar wind data around 22:49 UTC on Sept 16th, marking the expected arrival of the halo coronal mass ejection (CME), which lifted off the solar surface on Sept 14th. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 9 nT to 16 nT and the solar wind velocity initially increased from 455 to 498 km/s/. In the hours following the shock arrival the interplanetary magnetic field reached up to 19.9 nT with Bz of -18 nT and solar wind velocities approaching 600 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain perturbed under the ongoing influence of the ICME and a possible high speed stream arrival on Sept 18th or Sept 19th.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached globally strong to severe storm levels with Kp NOAA increasing up to 8- and Kp Potsdam registering 7+ in the interval 00:00 to 03:00 UTC on Sept 17th. Locally over Belgium only minor storm levels were observed with Kbel reaching 5 between 01:00 and 06:00 UTC. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions to minor storm levels are expected to prevail on Sept 17th with chances of reaching further moderate storm levels. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for Sept 18th with possible minor storm levels caused by an anticipated high speed stream arrival.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has gradually increased above the 10 pfu minor radiation storm threshold. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain at these elevated levels throughout Sept 17th and start declining on Sept 18th.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 registered a few periods above the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours, before decreasing back to nominal levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold on Sept 17th and Sept 18th. The 24h electron fluence was near the border of moderate to nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 145, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	144
10cm solar flux	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	048
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	022
Estimated international sunspot number	141 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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